A mobility analysis of the occupational status of the graduates of the University of Palermo in an economic crisis context


In such a global economic crisis context, our aims are describing the mobil- ity of the Palermitan graduates in the labour market, identifying the variables that in􏰝uence most their occupational status and 􏰜nally outlining a transi- tion probability structure among the states: Work, Search for a Job, Study, Other. The availability of a large amount of longitudinal data provided by the surveys carried out by STELLA (Statistics about Graduates and Labour Market) allowed us to analyze the mobility of the graduates of the Univer- sity of Palermo among the di􏰛erent occupational states in three di􏰛erent times. We analyze data coming from a disproportionate strati􏰜ed sample of graduates in 2009, interviewed three di􏰛erent times: one year (2010), three years (2012), 􏰜ve years (2014) after the graduation. To achieve our aim, 􏰜rst we provide a brief descriptive analysis of the main characteristics of the graduates gathered by the three di􏰛erent surveys; secondly we 􏰜t a time in- homogeneous multi-state Markov model with piecewise constant intensities; eventually implications from the main results are discussed.


DOI Code: 10.1285/i20705948v12n4p846

Keywords: occupational states mobility; Markov model; transition probabilities

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